问：比亚迪开年降价，谁最受伤？
必然是燃油合资。比亚迪直接点名“电比油低”，北京现代隔空回怼“油‘比’电强”。
火药味十足。
而那些不在比亚迪射程之内的车企，就能优雅地隔岸观火吗？肯定不能。
一只亚马逊河流域的蝴蝶扇动翅膀，会引起美国得克萨斯州的一场飓风。比亚迪开年扔出“王炸”，其实给 2024 年车市定了调：价格战，谁也无法置身事外。
降价的蝴蝶效应由此多了一位“受害者”——小米汽车。
众所周知，小米汽车在定价方面做足了营销。从技术发布会，到官方回答 100 问，再到雷总微博高强度营业，小米官方一直在传递新车“确实有点贵”的信息。
但是结合客观情况而言，友商竞品夹击，史无前例的降价力度，市场对于小米 SU7 定价的认知呈矛盾状态：一方面是其售价不可能再“交朋友”，另一方面在 20 万以上或者更高价位，其竞争力似乎并不突出。
出来混，早晚是要还的。
在手机圈，小米最引以为傲的是把行业价格给打了下来。现在到了汽车行业，友商有意无意间在对小米汽车的定价发难。
最卷一年，绕不开的价格战
毫不意外，降价的风吹到了 2024。
2023 年 1 月，特斯拉率先打响了价格战，汽车行业几乎全员跟进。比亚迪就是其中的激进者，2023 年 2 月，比亚迪秦推出冠军版，入门价格来到 9.98 万。然后在 2023 年底冲量促销，比亚迪秦再降 1 万，8.98 万起。
降价刺激销售，效果颇为明显。数据显示，2023 年紧凑型轿车销量，比亚迪秦 PLUS DM- i 的成绩仅次于轩逸和朗逸，位列第三。
乘胜追击，2024 年刚开工，比亚迪秦 PLUS 荣耀版、驱逐舰 05 荣耀版车型上市，价格下探 7.98 万元，业界将此举评价为“对燃油合资发起总攻”。
一家车企突袭式降价，最受伤的群体除了老车主，那肯定就是友商。
在比亚迪官宣之后，上汽通用五菱品牌事业部副总经理在微博发文：“一个字，跟。”与之对应，五菱星光 PHEV 150 进阶版价格调整，“荣耀价”9.98 万元，相比此前指导价下调 6000 元。
哪吒、长安启源、吉利、北京现代也都第一时间响应，10 万级 A 级新能源市场瞬间硝烟弥漫。
一位汽车销售人员表示：“都知道今年会继续卷，但是没想到开年就 7.98 万这么疯狂，比亚迪一降价其他车企只能被动接招。跟着降了，利润没了但能赚到吆喝，不降只能留着库存。”
降，还是不降？看上去是一道选择题，实际上压根就没得选。
车企对此也已有共识。何小鹏在开工信中表示，今年是中国汽车品牌进入“血海”竞争的第一年，也就是淘汰赛的第一年。吉利汽车集团 CEO 淦家阅也认为，2024 年将卷价格、卷产品、卷服务、卷流量，将是最卷一年。
这就意味着，10 万级 A 级市场只是第一枪，降价潮接下来必定会继续向其他市场区间蔓延。
对于目前尚未定价的小米汽车而言，全行业降价的蝴蝶效应自然影响其最终售价。
有业内人士分析，“小米汽车不停放出消息，但迟迟不公布售价，除了营销因素，也是在试探市场的反馈。因为小米品牌代表高性价比，可是汽车首战要把调性拔高，定价必须谨慎再谨慎。问题是现在行业降价力度空前，价格定高了就是反其道而行，会放大消费者对小米汽车定价的不满情绪。”
举棋不定的小米汽车，非但没有迎来“新手保护期”，反而开局不利。
定价骑虎难下，友商四处狙击
“最卷”一年已成定局，生来高调的小米汽车骑虎难下。而这，或许正是友商期望看到的结果。
雷军已经多次给消费者打预防针，小米 SU7 的定价可能会超出大家的心理预期，简而言之一个字——贵。
接受央视采访时，雷军直言：“网友们喊的 19.9 万元，我觉得是在开玩笑”。回复网友问答时他也再次强调，“不会是 9.9 万、不会是 14.9 万、不会是 19.9 万”。
排除文字游戏的可能性，小米 SU7 至少 20 万起售。
然而 20 万也不是上限，所以又有了 36.14 万上险价格曝光等事件。值得注意的是，当 36.14 万的烟雾弹一出，网友的情绪暴露了大众对于小米汽车价值的真实判断。
一边努力抬高身价，一边超出大众预期，小米汽车的定价困扰自然成了友商狙击的目标。
动作最明显的当属与小米汽车有过江湖恩怨的吉利。
12 月 28 日，小米召开汽车技术发布会，吉利选择在前一天截胡发布极氪 007，与小米 SU7 定位同级。小米明里暗里强调新车最终定价会在 20 万元以上，吉利银河 E8 则把官方指导价定在了 17.58 万 -22.88 万，与极氪 007 一起对小米 SU7 形成前后夹击。同时，吉利在 20 万左右区间还埋伏着领克 07，亦被视作直指小米 SU7。
上述汽车销售人员表示，“吉利几款新车各有特色，小米 SU7 在性能参数上领先，但是差距没有拉开太多，反倒是极氪 007、银河 E8 的售价会对小米造成实实在在的压力。比如银河 E8，上个月预售大定、置换补贴等叠加起来实际还能优惠 2 万以上。”
被友商贴着打，小米的被动处境凸显。小米汽车本身品牌积淀不足、稳定性未知的情况下，此时其定价如果高于同级竞品，消费者自然会更加仔细地权衡是否要为信仰充值。
而一旦选择放低身价，此前为抬高预期所做的诸多动作就会成为日后“打脸”的证据。
业内人士认为：“作为小米汽车开山之作，SU7 的任务不只是销量，还要赢得一个开门红，把小米汽车的定位、属性清晰地展现给市场。定价过低，小米品牌前几年打下的高端形象又要动摇，以后如果出 SU5、SU3 车型也很难定价。”
所以， 把定价和预期抬高，是小米汽车的必由之路。 即便 20 万 -30 万已是市场能接受的上限，小米汽车仍要硬生生把调性继续往上拔，雷军甚至喊话小米 SU7 在 50 万元以内没有对手。
营销越猛，反噬越强。骑虎难下之际，2024 开年比亚迪又掀起了一场史无前例的价格战，处在定价困扰中的小米汽车无疑越陷越深。
小米汽车如何收场？
手机市场，小米号称把全行业价格给打了下来。跨界造车，价格为何成了小米汽车的软肋？
归根结底，在最卷的行业，面对一群对价格最敏感的消费者，小米汽车无法做到比别人更强的成本控制。
之前一场投资者沟通会上，王传福用最平淡的语气说出了最狠的话：“10 万以下，乃至 10 万 -20 万的产品价格带，比亚迪拥有定价权。”
此言非虚，有行业观察者表示，比亚迪此轮降价至 7.98 万意味着放弃 A 级市场所有零部件利润，保证整车成本得到控制。而比亚迪也确实有对应的实力，因为其整车除了轮胎和玻璃，绝大多数零部件都是由自己生产。
正所谓“没有卖不出去的车，只有卖不出去的价格”，控制成本、下调售价、抢占市场，过往的价格战已经充分验证了降价对于消费者的刺激作用。
根据“车 FANS”市场调研结果，2023 年消费者最关心的购车因素就是价格，占比高达 73%。随着 2024 年最卷价格战打响，消费者对价格愈发敏感，这将进一步倒逼车企降价。
压力再次丢给小米汽车，其成本控制能力几何？
众所周知，汽车工业的成本控制一是与规模挂钩，二是考验对产业链整合能力。小米作为跨界新人，从 2021 年宣布造车算起，满打满算入行不到 3 年时间，能力短板可想而知，这就压缩了小米汽车降价的可操作空间。
不止小米汽车，事实上新势力品牌的定价几乎都受制于供应链。此前新能源市场出现过几轮集体涨价，原因就在于电池供应价格上涨，芯片供应短缺等。
综上，拥有行业定价权的比亚迪打响 2024 年降价第一枪，汗流浃背的不仅仅是 10 万元 A 级市场燃油合资品牌。当降价的蝴蝶效应袭来，在一家更比一家卷的汽车行业，无人能置身事外。
小米汽车，恰恰处在售价难定的尴尬期，遇到开年就扔王炸的降价，引用雷总的经典台词，“这绝对是来捣乱的”。
当然，在科技行业摸爬滚打多年的小米并不是第一次遇到类似的棘手情况。别忘了雷总还有一项经典技能，“连夜说服高管”。
国内目前手机厂商，参与以旧换新的情况
那么国内手机厂商为何热衷于参与以旧换新业务呢？在我们看来，主要有以下几点原因：
第一，降低购机门槛，加速老用户向新机型的过度。目前智能手机渗透率已经接近饱和，中国的新机销售量每年达到 2.5 亿，稳据世界第一，各个品牌要拓展市场占有率，新用户的目标已经着手于国外市场，保持品牌老用户的忠诚度，降低换机更换品牌的概率，也是重要的战略。通过以旧换新的市场手段，帮助老用户在换新机的时候降低门槛，少花钱，可以更好的留住老用户。
第二，促进手机循环利用，为环保做贡献，体现品牌的社会责任。很多时候我们对闲置手机的处理并不关注，在有些情况下，我们会随意扔掉已经坏了无法使用的手机，这对环境的危害很大，一块废旧手机电池的污染强度是普通干电池的 100 倍，可污染 6 万升水。手机厂商和手机回收机构的合作，能够有效降低电子产品带来的环境污染的风险，体现品牌的社会责任，赢得消费者的好感。每年苹果公司都会发布两份报告：《2017 年环境责任报告》、《苹果公司社会责任报告》，体现苹果在环境保护和社会责任方面的贡献。国内手机品牌虽然销量上来了，但是品牌厚度还有很大进步空间。
第三，有助于抢占其他品牌用户。vivo 此次以旧换新的服务，回收的手机范围，不仅仅包括 vivo 品牌的手机，也包括其他品牌的手机，这个对其他品牌的用户转化为 vivo 品牌的用户是非常有利的政策。
根据今日头条出的《今日头条大数据报告解析手机行业上半年》报告指出了各个品牌的用户换机流向如下图：
以旧换新的政策能够促进其他品牌用户向 vivo 转化
目前国内手机回收平台中最大的两家是回收宝和爱回收，都在跑马圈地，在和手机品牌的合作的竞争上非常激烈。从目前厂商合作情况来看，回收宝更得到大品牌的认可。目前中国前四大国产手机品牌中，只有 OPPO 还没有推出以旧换新的服务，相信 OPPO 也正在看其他厂商的反馈，如果取得了较为不错的效果，相信也会跟进。我顺手去 OPPO 的官微下看了下用户评论，也能够看到相关需求：
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二手手机也一样，很多国家，例如印度、东南亚、非洲都对中国品牌的手机有很大的需求，未来回收企业将想方设法，拓展自己回收手机的销售渠道，提升利润。
国内的回收公司的体量相比于 eRC 等企业还是比较小的，在未来也许和世界各地的手机回收企业有联动、合作，将每一台闲置手机都送到更适合需要他的国家的消费者手中。
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.03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){–nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){–weui-BG-0: #111;–weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;–weui-BG-2: #191919;–weui-BG-3: #202020;–weui-BG-4: #404040;–weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;–weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);–weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);–weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);–weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);–weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);–weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);–weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);–weui-RED: #fa5151;–weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;–weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;–weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;–weui-GREEN: #74a800;–weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;–weui-BRAND: #07c160;–weui-BLUE: #10aeff;–weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;–weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;–weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);–weui-LINK: #7d90a9;–weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;–weui-FG: #fff;–weui-BG: #000;–weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);–weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);–weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){–appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}a{color:#576b95;text-decoration:none;-webkit-tap-highlight-color:#0000;-webkit-user-drag:none}a{color:var(–weui-LINK)}a,button{cursor:pointer}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{–appmsgPageGap: 20px;–appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{–articleFontsize: 17px}:root{–sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{–wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{–discussPageGap: 20px}:root{–immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{–appmsgPageGap: 20px;–appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}
div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}
原文链接：https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240221A07QHB00
